Yes, it’s true. The Arizona Cardinals are expected to be the worst team in the NFL. Betting lines give them the lowest projected win total in the NFL and the total has dropped from earlier in the offseason.
The Houston Texans are also not expected to be good.
As such, it makes sense that Arizona has the best implied odds of having the No. 1 pick in the 2024 NFL draft.
As noted by Kyle Odegard, ESPN’s Football Power Index gives the Cardinals an 18% chance of having the top pick in the draft. Following them are the Texans with a 13% chance.
Because the Cardinals own the Texans’ first-round draft pick (acquired in a draft-day trade this year), that gives Arizona a combined 31% chance, or nearly one-in-three chance, to have the top pick.
The Buccaneers follow at 11%, then the Colts at 9% and the Rams at 5%.
The Cardinals have a higher implied chance of getting the top pick than the next three teams combined.
That means the 2023 season is expected to be a rough one for fans, although most know it. They lost three of their best defensive players to retirement or free agency without adding anyone of note. Quarterback Kyler Murray is expected to miss at least some of the first of the season and they have a tough schedule that includes three cold-weather cities on the road in December.
The silver lining?
If Murray returns to his level of play before his injury and the team shows signs of life, the Cardinals can use that pick to acquire more picks, establishing a stream of chances at young talent in the present and future.
Unfortunately, that means expecting to see a lot of losses.
Listen to the latest from Cards Wire’s Jess Root on his podcast, Rise Up, See Red. Subscribe on Apple podcasts or Spotify.